It’s late Friday afternoon. Your biggest client has just called with an urgent problem. Your team is looking to you for a decision—fast. Do you hold firm, pivot, or risk waiting for more information?

Your key supplier has just informed you that a critical shipment will be delayed by two weeks, jeopardising your product launch. Do you scramble for an alternative, renegotiate timelines, or adjust expectations?

A senior team member has unexpectedly resigned, leaving a leadership gap just as you’re entering a crucial quarter. Do you promote internally, bring in a temporary replacement, or take on their responsibilities yourself?

How do you decide?

Decision-making under pressure isn’t just about speed; it’s about clarity, confidence, and knowing when to act.

Many leaders either overthink (getting stuck in paralysis by analysis) or react impulsively (making rash decisions they later regret).

The best leaders develop tools to navigate high-stakes moments with composure and effectiveness.

Why pressure destroys good decision-making

When stress levels rise, our brains default to survival instincts: fight, flight, or freeze. This often results in:

• Over-reliance on gut instinct – acting without properly considering all variables.
• Analysis paralysis – endlessly weighing options without committing to a decision.
• Emotional hijacking – allowing fear, anger, or ego to drive actions rather than rational thought.

Leaders must recognise these patterns and develop structured approaches to making decisions when the pressure is on.

Let’s explore how to decide well, each and every time.

The OODA loop: a framework for fast, effective decisions

A simple but powerful decision-making process is the OODA loop, originally developed by military strategist John Boyd.

The four steps—Observe, Orient, Decide, Act—help leaders maintain clarity in high-stakes situations:

1. Observe – collect critical facts quickly. What’s happening? What information is immediately available?
2. Orient – assess the situation against previous knowledge and context. What biases or assumptions might be influencing your perception?
3. Decide – determine the best course of action based on available data.
4. Act – implement the decision decisively, then return to the observation stage to adjust if needed.

By using the OODA loop, leaders can avoid knee-jerk reactions and ensure their responses are well-calibrated to the situation.

Let's consider an example of how this might play out:

In a manufacturing company, a critical assembly line machine breaks down unexpectedly, halting production. Within minutes, the factory floor is in chaos—workers are standing idle, supervisors are scrambling for answers, and production deadlines are under threat.

Sarah, the Operations Director, takes a deep breath and kicks into action. She quickly gathers the key supervisors to get a clear understanding of the problem (Observe). Within minutes, she has a picture of the damage and its potential impact on customer orders.

She pulls up contingency plans and evaluates which products can be rerouted to a secondary production line (Orient).

Based on the time needed for repairs, she decides to shift high-priority orders to the backup line while bringing in specialist technicians for immediate repairs (Decide).

She communicates the plan clearly, reallocates the workforce, and monitors the situation closely, ready to adjust as new information comes in (Act).

As the repairs progress, Sarah continuously cycles through the OODA loop, refining the response in real time. Her composure and structured approach keep the team focused and the business moving.

Mental models for clearer thinking

Beyond the OODA loop, several mental models help sharpen decision-making under pressure:

• The 40-70 rule – Colin Powell advised that decisions should be made with at least 40% of the necessary information, but waiting for 100% leads to paralysis. Leaders often fall into the trap of over-researching, assuming they need absolute certainty before acting. In reality, waiting too long can be just as damaging as acting too soon. For example, a CEO deciding whether to enter a new market might not have perfect data on long-term growth trends, but if they have a solid understanding of customer demand and competitive landscape, it's often enough to make an informed move.
• The paradox of choice – when faced with too many choices, people struggle to make decisions effectively. The famous 'jam study' by psychologists Sheena Iyengar and Mark Lepper demonstrated this. In their experiment, customers at a supermarket were presented with a tasting booth offering either 24 types of jam or just six. While the larger selection attracted more attention, people were far more likely to make a purchase when offered only six choices. The lesson? More options create cognitive overload, making it harder to commit to a decision. Leaders facing complex decisions can apply this by deliberately narrowing choices down to a few high-quality options rather than drowning in endless possibilities. Simplification leads to clarity and action.
• Pre-mortem analysis – imagine a future scenario where the decision has failed and work backwards to identify potential weaknesses. This differs from risk assessment because it assumes failure has already happened, forcing a more honest exploration of vulnerabilities. Consider a leadership team preparing for a merger. Rather than just identifying possible risks, they could conduct a pre-mortem and ask, If this merger fails three years from now, why did it happen? Maybe cultural misalignment was ignored, or integration took longer than expected. With this insight, they can adjust strategies before committing.

These models help leaders make decisions that are not only fast but also well-structured and strategically sound, ensuring they act with confidence and clarity under pressure.

Reducing decision fatigue

The more decisions you make in a day, the worse your judgment gets. Every choice—big or small—drains cognitive energy, leading to poorer decisions later on.

High-profile leaders like Steve Jobs and Barack Obama understood this and simplified their lives by wearing the same outfit daily—Jobs in his black turtleneck and jeans, Obama in his navy or grey suits. By eliminating trivial choices, they preserved their mental energy for higher-stakes decisions.

While this extreme approach to their wardrobe won’t appeal to most, leaders can apply this principle by streamlining routines, automating low-value decisions, and focusing their cognitive resources where they matter most.

To prevent decision fatigue:

• Delegate low-stakes decisions to avoid cognitive overload.
• Use decision templates for routine choices to streamline thinking.
• Set time limits – decisions expand to fill the time allocated to them.
• Get comfortable with “good enough” – perfectionism slows decision-making and stifles momentum.

Leading with confidence (even when you’re uncertain)

Making decisions isn’t about having perfect answers—it’s about making the best call possible with the information available, as in the 40-70 rule.

The reality is, leaders rarely have the luxury of complete certainty. Delaying decisions in search of perfect clarity can cause missed opportunities, while making snap decisions without enough context can lead to costly mistakes. The balance lies in using available data, experience, and judgment to take decisive action, even when the path ahead isn’t entirely clear.

A leader who exudes confidence, even in uncertainty, fosters trust within their team. When a leader appears calm and resolute, their team is more likely to stay focused and engaged, rather than becoming paralysed by doubt.

Confidence doesn’t mean pretending to have all the answers—it means demonstrating that you have a process for figuring things out and navigating challenges effectively.

As performance psychologist Jamil Qureshi puts it:

“Decision making is not about understanding the choices and being able to predict success. Instead it is about being able to trust ourselves to navigate our way to a successful outcome.”

The key is:

• Being transparent about what you know—and what you don’t. Confidence isn’t about bluffing. Strong leaders acknowledge when they don’t have all the answers while reassuring their teams that they have a plan to find solutions. Saying, “We don’t have all the information yet, but here’s what we do know and how we’ll approach it,” provides clarity and reduces anxiety.
• Outlining next steps and contingency plans. Even when the final outcome is uncertain, leaders should provide a clear action plan. This could include setting short-term priorities, outlining decision checkpoints, and establishing backup plans in case the situation evolves. By defining the immediate steps, leaders create forward momentum and prevent the team from getting stuck in uncertainty.
• Showing conviction—people follow leaders who remain composed under pressure. Indecisiveness breeds doubt. Even if a decision is later adjusted, decisive leadership gives teams the confidence to move forward. When leaders hesitate excessively, it signals uncertainty, which can trickle down and disrupt performance. Instead, strong leaders make the best decision they can, communicate it clearly, and remain adaptable as new information arises.
• Framing uncertainty as an opportunity, not a threat. The best leaders reframe uncertainty as a challenge to be embraced rather than a risk to be feared. Instead of saying, “We don’t know what’s going to happen,” they say, “We have a unique opportunity to shape the outcome.” This mindset shift fosters resilience, creativity, and proactive problem-solving within teams.
• Using the collective intelligence of the team. Confidence doesn’t mean going it alone. Great leaders invite input, gather diverse perspectives, and make informed decisions with the best insights available. Showing that you value your team’s expertise builds trust and encourages a culture of collaboration.

Ultimately, confident leadership isn’t about always being right—it’s about leading with clarity, decisiveness, and a steady hand in the face of uncertainty. When teams trust that their leader has a plan and is willing to adapt as needed, they are far more likely to stay engaged, proactive, and focused on achieving the best possible outcome.

Train for pressure before it hits

The best leaders don’t wait for a crisis to practice decision-making under stress. They rehearse high-pressure scenarios before they happen.

• Scenario planning – what would we do if X happened?
• Red team exercises – challenge your own decisions to stress-test them.
• Debriefs after high-pressure moments – review what worked, what didn’t, and how to improve next time.

A leader’s ability to make smart, composed decisions under pressure isn’t an innate talent—it’s a skill that can be trained and refined.

What’s one high-stakes decision you’re facing right now?

How can you use these frameworks to approach it with more confidence?